Axios’ Crystal Ball

May 21, 2019

By Matthew Groves, House District 6 Co-chair

I regret I do not have much time to look into this crystal ball today. But, I found this morning read from Stef Knight at Axios fairly interesting. This is a predictive analytic of what the population – and voting base – will look like in 2040.

Anyone who is a tactical shooter will tell you that in order to shoot a moving target, you can’t shoot to where the target is, you shoot to where it will be. Otherwise, you find you’ve missed behind your mark. Good quarterbacks (though I’m not sure you’ll find any in Denver) will tell you the same about ‘leading’ a receiver, so he does not have to break stride to catch the ball. Much the same, we should be building infrastructure ahead of these trends so that we don’t find ourselves falling behind our marks and setting up an encampment in the minority.

There are two trends here that I think are important. First, there will be more older people than children. That seems to favor us as a party, as older folks tend to vote Republican. As people go about making their living in a post- social security world, financial stability and fiscal conservatism will be incredibly important to those pursuing their American dream and trying to raise families. It will also give today’s children indoctrinated by a public-school education time to have their worlds shaken by reality. Ultimately, this should serve as more a validation of our current message than a landmark for amending it.

Second, the next generation will have lived through the school shootings, but not 9/11. This is scary. If future Americans believe that there is a more realistic chance of death through domestic terrorism than foreign terrorism, they will increasingly rely on the government to protect them from … themselves. This could be an abject shift of police power to the state at a time when technology enables the state to be far more invasive in your life than it already is. I think we’ll find friends on both sides of the aisle in an argument for privacy. In Congress, anti-NSA votes generally created alliances between the far left and the far right against the mainstream. Since, we’ve naturally led the way for decades on security, this could be an emerging issue where could potentially dominate both sides of the issue. After all, privacy is rooted in the Constitution. Even if the Court can’t always figure out where (Griswold reference).